Choice Dilemmas Questionnaire

Reference

Kogan, N., & Wallach, M. A. (1964). Risk taking: A study in cognition and personality. Holt, Rinehart & Winston. https://doi.org/10.1037/t00821-000

Choice Dilemmas Questionnaire

Instruc8ons. On the following pages, you will find a series of situa8ons that are likely to occur in everyday life.

The central person in each situa8on is faced with a choice between two alterna8ve courses of ac8on, which we might call X and Y. Alterna8ve X is more desirable and aIrac8ve than alterna8ve Y, but the probability of aIaining or achieving X is less than that of aIaining or achieving Y.

For each situa8on on the following pages, you will be asked to indicate the minimum odds of success you would demand before recommending that the more aIrac8ve or desirable alterna8ve, X, be chosen.

Read each situa8on carefully before giving your judgment. Try to place yourself in the posi8on of the central person in each of the situa8ons. There are twelve situa8ons in all. Please do not omit any of them.

1. Mr. A, an electrical engineer, who is married and has one child, has been working for a large electronics corpora8on since gradua8ng from college five years ago. He is assured of a life8me job with a modest, though adequate, salary, and liberal pension benefits upon re8rement. On the other hand, it is very unlikely that his salary will increase much before he re8res. While aIending a conven8on, Mr. A is offered a job with a small, newly founded company which has a highly uncertain future. The new job would pay more to start and would offer the possibility of share in the ownership if the company survived the compe88on of the larger firms.

   Imagine that you are advising Mr. A. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds of the new company’s proving financially sound.

   Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable to make it worthwhile for Mr. A. to take the new job.

        The chances are 1 in 10 that the company will prove financially sound.

        The chances are 3 in 10 that the company will prove financially sound.

        The chances are 5 in 10 that the company will prove financially sound.

        The chances are 7 in 10 that the company will prove financially sound.

        The chances are 9 in 10 that the company will prove financially sound.

          Place a check here if you think Mr. A should not take the new job no maIer what the probabili8es.

2. Mr. B, a 45-­‐year-­‐old accountant, has recently been informed by his physician that he has developed a severe heart ailment. The disease would be sufficiently serious to force Mr. B to change many of his strongest life habits—reducing his work load, dras8cally changing his diet, giving up favorite leisure-­‐8me pursuits. The physician suggests that a delicate medical opera8on could be atempted which, if successful, would completely relieve the heart condi8on. But its success could not be assured, and in fact, the opera8on might prove fatal.

   Imagine that you are advising Mr. B. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds that the opera8on will prove successful.

   Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for the opera=on to be performed.                                                      

          Place a check here if you think Mr. B should not have the opera8on no maIer what the probabili8es.

        The chances are 9 in 10 that the opera8on will be a success.

        The chances are 7 in 10 that the opera8on will be a success.

        The chances are 5 in 10 that the opera8on will be a success.

        The chances are 3 in 10 that the opera8on will be a success.

        The chances are 1 in 10 that the opera8on will be a success.

3. Mr. C, a married man with two children, has a steady job that pays him about $6,000 per year. He can easily afford the necessi8es of life, but few of the luxuries. Mr. C’s father, who died recently, carried a $4,000 life insurance policy. Mr. C would like to invest this money in stocks. He is well aware of the secure “blue-­‐chip” stocks and bonds that would pay approximately 6% on his investment. On the other hand, Mr. C has heard that the stocks of a rela8vely unknown Company X might double their present value if a new product currently in produc8on is favorably received by the buying public. However, if the product currently is unfavorably received, the stocks would decline in value.

   Imaging that you are advising Mr. C. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds that Company X stocks will double their value.

   Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for Mr. C to invest in Company X stocks.

        The chances are 1 in 10 that the stocks will double their value.

        The chances are 3 in 10 that the stocks will double their value.

        The chances arc 5 in 10 that the stocks will double their value.

        The chances are 7 in 10 that the stocks will double their value.

        The chances are 9 in 10 that the stocks will double their value.

          Place a check here if you think Mr. C should not invest in Company X stocks no maIer what the

4. Mr. D is the captain of College X’s football team. College X is playing its tradi8onal rival, College Y, in the final game of the season. The game is in its final seconds, and Mr. D’s team, College X, is behind in the score. College X has 8me to run one more play. Mr. D, the captain, must decide whether it would be best to seIle for a 8e score with a play which would be almost certain to work, or, on the other hand, should he try a more complicated and risky play which could bring victory if it succeeded, but defeat if not.

   Imagine that you are advising Mr. D. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds that the risky play will work.

   Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for the risky play to be a@empted.

          Place a check here if you think Mr. D should not aIempt the risky play no maIer what the probabili8es.

        The chances are 9 in 10 that the risky play will work.

        The chances are 7 in 10 that the risky play will work.

        The chances are 5 in 10 that the risky play will work.

        The chances are 3 in 10 that the risky play will work.

        The chances are 1 in 10 that the risky play will work.                                                 

5. Mr. E is president of a light metals corpora8on in the United States. The corpora8on is quite prosperous, and has strongly considered the possibili8es of business expansion by building an addi8onal plant in a new loca8on. The choice is between building another plant in the U.S., where there would be a moderate return on the ini8al investment, or building a plant in a foreign country. Lower labor costs and easy access to raw materials in that country would mean a much higher return on the ini8al investment. On the other hand, there is a history of poli8cal instability and revolu8on in the foreign country under considera8on. In fact, the leader of a small minority party is commiIed to na8onalizing, that is, taking over, all foreign investments.

   Imagine that you are advising Mr. E. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds of con8nued poli8cal stability in the foreign country under considera8on.

   Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for Mr. E’s corpora=on to build a plant in that country.

        The chances are 1 in 10 that the foreign country will remain poli8cally stable.

        The chances are 3 in 10 that the foreign country will remain poli8cally stable.

        The chances are 5 in 10 that the foreign country will remain poli8cally stable.

        The chances are 7 in 10 that the foreign country will remain poli8cally stable.

        The chances are 9 in 10 that the foreign country will remain poli8cally stable.

          Place a check here if you think Mr. E’s corpora8on should not build a plant in the foreign country, no maIer what the probabili8es.

6. Mr. F is currently a college senior who is very eager to pursue graduate study in chemistry leading to the Doctor of Philosophy degree. He has been accepted by both University X and University Y. University X has a world-­‐wide reputa8on for excellence in chemistry. While a degree from University X would signify outstanding training in this field, the standards are so very rigorous that only a frac8on of the degree candidates actually receive the degree. University Y, on the other hand, has much less of a reputa8on in chemistry, but almost everyone admiIed is awarded the Doctor of Philosophy degree, though the degree has much less pres8ge than the corresponding degree from University X.

   Imagine that you are advising Mr. F. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds that Mr. F would be awarded a degree at University X, the one with the greater pres8ge.

   Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable to make it worthwhile for Mr. F to enroll in University X rather than University Y.

          Place a check here if you think Mr. F should not enroll in University X, no maIer what the probabili8es.

        The chances are 9 in 10 that Mr. F would receive a degree from University X.

        The chances are 7 in 10 that Mr. F would receive a degree from University X.

        The chances are 5 in 10 that Mr. F would receive a degree from University X.

        The chances are 3 in 10 that Mr. F would receive a degree from University X.

        The chances are 1 in 10 that Mr. F would receive a degree from University X.                                                                       

7. Mr. G, a competent chess player, is par8cipa8ng in a na8onal chess tournament. In an early match he draws the top-­‐favored player in the tournament as his opponent. Mr. G has been given a rela8vely low ranking in view of his performance in previous tournaments. During the course of his play with the top-­‐favored man, Mr. G notes the possibility of a decep8ve though risk maneuver which might bring him a quick victory. At the same 8me, if the aIempted maneuver should fail, Mr. G. would be lel in an exposed posi8on and defeat would almost certainly follow.

   Imagine that you are advising Mr. G. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds that Mr. G’s decep8ve play would succeed.

   Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for the risky play in ques=on to be

        The chances are 1 in 10 that the play would succeed.

        The chances are 3 in 10 that the play would succeed.

        The chances are 5 in 10 that the play would succeed.

        The chances are 7 in 10 that the play would succeed.

        The chances are 9 in 10 that the play would succeed.

          Place a check here if you think Mr. G. should not aIempt the risky play, no maIer what the probabili8es.

8. Mr. H, a college senior, has studied the piano since childhood. He has won amateur prizes and given small recitals, sugges8ng that Mr. H has considerable musical talent. As gradua8on approaches, Mr. H has the choice of going to medical school to become a physician, a profession which would bring certain pres8ge and financial rewards; or entering a conservatory of music for advanced training with a well-­‐known pianist. Mr. H realizes that even upon comple8on of his piano studies, which would take many more years and a lot of money, success a concert pianist would not be assured.

   Imagine that you are advising Mr. H. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds that Mr. H would succeed as a concert pianist.

   Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for Mr. H to con=nue with his musical

          Place a check here if you think Mr. H should not pursue his musical training no maIer what the

        The chances are 9 in 10 that Mr. H would succeed as a concert pianist.

        The chances are 7 in 10 that Mr. H would succeed as a concert pianist.

        The chances are 5 in 10 that Mr. H would succeed as a concert pianist.

        The chances are 3 in 10 that Mr. H would succeed as a concert pianist.

        The chances are 1 in 10 that Mr. H would succeed as a concert pianist.

9. Mr. J is an American captured by the enemy in World War II and placed in a prison-­‐of-­‐war camp. Condi8ons in the camp are quite bad, with long hours of hard physical labor and a barely sufficient diet. Aler spending several months in this camp, Mr. J notes the possibility of escape by concealing himself in a supply truck that shuIles in and out of the camp. Of course, there is no guarantee that the escape would prove successful. Recapture by the enemy could well mean execu8on.                                                                       

   Imagine that you are advising Mr. J. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds of a successful escape from the prisoner-­‐of-­‐war camp.

   Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for an escape to be a@empted.

        The chances are 1 in 10 that the escape would succeed.

        The chances are 3 in 10 that the escape would succeed.

        The chances are 5 in 10 that the escape would succeed.

        The chances are 7 in 10 that the escape would succeed.

        The chances are 9 in 10 that the escape would succeed.

          Place a check here if you think Mr. J should not try to escape no maIer what the probabili8es.

10. Mr. K is a successful businessman who has par8cipated in a number of civic ac8vi8es of considerable value to the community. Mr. K has been approached by the leaders of his poli8cal party as a possible congressional candidate in the next elec8on. Mr. K’s party is a minority party in the district, though the party has won occasional elec8ons in the past. Mr. K would like to hold poli8cal office, but to do so would involve a serious financial sacrifice, since the party has insufficient campaign funds. He would also have to endure the aIacks of his poli8cal opponents in a hot campaign.

    Imagine that you are advising Mr. K. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds of Mr. K’s winning the elec8on in his district.

    Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable to make it worthwhile for Mr. K to run for poli=cal office.

           Place a check here if you think Mr. K should not run for poli8cal office no maIer what the probabili8es.

         The chances are 9 in 10 that Mr. K would win the elec8on.

         The chances are 7 in 10 that Mr. K would win the elec8on.

         The chances are 5 in 10 that Mr. K would win the elec8on.

         The chances are 3 in 10 that Mr. K would win the elec8on.

         The chances are 1 in 10 that Mr. K would win the elec8on.

11. Mr. L, a married 30-­‐year-­‐old research physicist, has been given a five-­‐year appointment by a major university laboratory. As he contemplates the next five years, he realizes that he might work on a difficult, long-­‐term problem which, if a solu8on could be found, would resolve basic scien8fic issues in the field and bring high scien8fic honors. If no solu8on were found, however, Mr. L would have liIle to show for his five years in the laboratory, and this would make it hard for him to get a good job alerwards. On the other hand, he could, as most of his professional associates are doing, work on a series of short-­‐term problems where solu8ons would be easier to find, but where the problems are of lesser scien8fic importance.

    Imagine that you are advising Mr. L. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds that a solu8on would be found to the difficult, long-­‐term problem that Mr. L has in mind.                                                              

    Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable to make it worthwhile for Mr. L to work on the more difficult, long-­‐term problem.

         The chances are 1 in 10 that Mr. L would solve the long-­‐term problem.

         The chances are 3 in 10 that Mr. L would solve the long-­‐term problem.

         The chances are 5 in 10 that Mr. L would solve the long-­‐term problem.

         The chances are 7 in 10 that Mr. L would solve the long-­‐term problem.

         The chances are 9 in 10 that Mr. L would solve the long-­‐term problem.

         Place a check here if you think Mr. L should not choose the long-­‐term, difficult problem no maIer what the probabili8es.

12. Mr. M is contempla8ng marriage to Miss T, a girl whom he has known for a liIle more than a year. Recently, however, a number of arguments have occurred between them, sugges8ng some sharp differences of opinion in the way each views certain maIers. Indeed, they decide to seek professional advice from a marriage counselor as to whether it would be wise for them to marry. On the basis of these mee8ngs with a marriage counselor, they realize that a happy marriage, while possible, would not be assured.

Imagine that you are advising Mr. M. and Miss T. Listed below are several probabili8es or odds that their marriage would prove to be a happy and successful one.

Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for Mr. M and Miss T to get married.

       Place a check here if you think Mr. M and Miss T should not marry no maIer what the probabili8es.

     The chances are 9 in 10 that the marriage would be happy and successful.

     The chances are 7 in 10 that the marriage would be happy and successful.

     The chances are 5 in 10 that the marriage would be happy and successful.

     The chances are 3 in 10 that the marriage would be happy and successful.

     The chances are 1 in 10 that the marriage would be happy and successful.