The 95% confidence interval of the variance component in a mixed model is calculated by using the maximum likelihood estimation method. This involves calculating the standard error of the variance component, which is then used to determine the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval. The confidence interval represents the range of values within which the true value of the variance component is likely to fall with 95% certainty. This calculation takes into account the variability within the data and the sample size, providing a reliable estimate of the variance component in the mixed model.
How is the 95% CI of the variance component in a mixed model
calculated? | Stata FAQ
NOTE: Code for this page was tested in Stata 12.
Below is a mixed model, where female is used to predict mathach,
the model includes a random intercept, where the level 2 units are defined by
the variable id.
xtmixed mathach female || id:
Performing EM optimization:
Performing gradient-based optimization:
Iteration 0: log restricted-likelihood = -23528.021
Iteration 1: log restricted-likelihood = -23528.021
Computing standard errors:
Mixed-effects REML regression Number of obs = 7185
Group variable: school Number of groups = 160
Obs per group: min = 14
avg = 44.9
max = 67
Wald chi2(1) = 62.83
Log restricted-likelihood = -23528.021 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
mathach | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
female | -1.358992 .1714418 -7.93 0.000 -1.695012 -1.022972
_cons | 13.34494 .2546749 52.40 0.000 12.84579 13.8441
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Random-effects Parameters | Estimate Std. Err. [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
id: Identity |
sd(_cons) | 2.858072 .1798756 2.526399 3.233288
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
sd(Residual) | 6.232982 .0525962 6.130743 6.336926
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression: chibar2(01) = 938.95 Prob >= chibar2 = 0.0000At the bottom of the output is the table that displays the estimates of the standard
deviation of random effects (variances are shown if the var option is used). The standard
deviation (SD) of the random intercept is displayed on the line beginning sd(_cons) and is
estimated as 2.86
for this model. In
addition to the estimate of the random intercept, the table includes the
standard error of the estimate, and the 95% confidence interval (CI). You may
notice that the lower bound for the CI is not equal to 2.858 – 1.96*.18 (=
2.506), the upper bound of the CI is also seemingly inconsistent with the output. Why isn’t the CI
calculated in the usual way (i.e. b +/- 1.96*se)? The CI actually is calculated
in the usual way, it’s just that the displayed
values just aren’t the correct values to use to in the calculation.
To understand why the values displayed are not used calculate the 95% CI it is important to know that Stata doesn’t actually
estimate the SD (or the variance) of the random effects, instead it estimates
the natural log of the SD (i.e., ln(sd)), which assures that the standard
deviation will always be positive. Stata then exponentiates the estimates so
that what you see is the SD (or the variance if the var option is used). Knowing this, we can see that the correct formula
for the confidence interval involves the natural logs of the coefficients and
standard errors displayed, specifically:
CI = exp(ln(sd) +/- 1.96*(ln(sesd))
where sesd is the standard error of the estimate of the SD of the random
effect. Calculating the CI this was assures that the lower bound of the CI will never be below zero.
It also results in CIs that are not symmetric around the estimate of the SD or variance.
We can use the returned results that Stata stores after the
model is run to calculate the CI. The ln(sd) of the random intercept is stored
in the rather odd looking macro _b[lns1_1_1:_cons] , and the standard error is stored in
_se[lns1_1_1:_cons]. We can use those values, along with the display
command, to calculate the lower and upper bounds of the CI. The two lines of
code below do just that:
display exp(_b[lns1_1_1:_cons] - 1.96*_se[lns1_1_1:_cons]) 2.5263929 display exp(_b[lns1_1_1:_cons] + 1.96*_se[lns1_1_1:_cons]) 3.233295
These values should be very close to the bounds of the CI shown in the
output, there may be some (very) small differences because Stata uses a more
precise approximation to the correct z value for a 95% CI (1.959964…) than we
used (1.96). Note that in order to get the confidence interval for the variance
you will need to square the upper and lower bounds of the CI, the same way that
you square the SD to get the variance.
Cite this article
stats writer (2024). How is the 95% confidence interval of the variance component in a mixed model calculated?. PSYCHOLOGICAL SCALES. Retrieved from https://scales.arabpsychology.com/stats/how-is-the-95-confidence-interval-of-the-variance-component-in-a-mixed-model-calculated/
stats writer. "How is the 95% confidence interval of the variance component in a mixed model calculated?." PSYCHOLOGICAL SCALES, 1 Jul. 2024, https://scales.arabpsychology.com/stats/how-is-the-95-confidence-interval-of-the-variance-component-in-a-mixed-model-calculated/.
stats writer. "How is the 95% confidence interval of the variance component in a mixed model calculated?." PSYCHOLOGICAL SCALES, 2024. https://scales.arabpsychology.com/stats/how-is-the-95-confidence-interval-of-the-variance-component-in-a-mixed-model-calculated/.
stats writer (2024) 'How is the 95% confidence interval of the variance component in a mixed model calculated?', PSYCHOLOGICAL SCALES. Available at: https://scales.arabpsychology.com/stats/how-is-the-95-confidence-interval-of-the-variance-component-in-a-mixed-model-calculated/.
[1] stats writer, "How is the 95% confidence interval of the variance component in a mixed model calculated?," PSYCHOLOGICAL SCALES, vol. X, no. Y, ص Z-Z, July, 2024.
stats writer. How is the 95% confidence interval of the variance component in a mixed model calculated?. PSYCHOLOGICAL SCALES. 2024;vol(issue):pages.
